No great UKIP breakthrough pending according to polls and press

What would constitute a “break through” for UKIP in the county elections?

by Sir John Redwood MP on 29 April 2013 07:39

I have been very tolerant of the UKIP bloggers who regularly use my site to tell us UKIP is about to make a breakthrough. Unlike the supporters of other parties, they also write in a more party partisan way, a course of action more appropriate to confine during elections to proper leaflets under normal election expense rules.

I have been regularly criticised by UKIP supporters for pointing out their lack of electoral success so far in council and parliamentary elections. I argued prior to 2010 the party would not win a single parliamentary seat, even though it fought Buckingham where there was no Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem candidate. It has not won a single by election for Parliament either.

So let me indulge them again, by asking this simple question. What would constitute a “break through” for UKIP in the county elections? How many councils would they need to win outright? How many seats in total would they need to take? Anyone can express a view, as it is the question UKIP has wanted us all to consider.

If UKIP members now think their party will not this time make a break through by winning control of county councils, what would they regard as a good result?  Is the main aim in effect to get more councils into Labour hands, by taking more votes from Conservatives than from Labour? How many such results would represent a “UKIP victory”?

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