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Neither Boris nor George will be the next Prime Minister
Neither Boris Johnson nor George Osborne have shown that they will continue to modernise the Conservative party.
Westminster insiders enjoy placing bets on who will become the next Prime Minister. For most there are only two contenders: Boris and George.
With Parliament empty for the summer recess, the rivalry has been gaining more coverage. Almost every move the pair make is interpreted as an early bid for the crown. And last week the sparring almost turned into a fist-fight when the Mayor of London called on the Chancellor to scrap the 50p top rate of tax.
But in all probability neither of them will ever be Prime Minister.
This is not because they lack the support. If, as early polling suggests, Boris Johnson is re-elected in 2012 he will be the most successful Tory in the country. Meanwhile, by tackling the deficit George Osborne carries the fate of the entire government - and will take all the praise should he pull it off.
The reason that neither the Chancellor nor the Mayor of London will be Prime Minister is because succeeding David Cameron is not the challenge. Winning the next election is. And that victory is far from certain.
The Conservatives did not win in 2010. Despite Labour's disastrous record, despite Gordon Brown's utter inability to show leadership, despite the backing of almost all of the press, people could not bring themselves to vote Blue. And yet many in the party seem to have forgotten this fact.
Buoyed by seeing David Cameron in Number 10, as well as the recent triumph in the No to AV Campaign and the looming collapse of the Eurozone, many Tories think it is time to ditch the Lib-Dem friendly, centrist policies and tack to the Right.
And both Boris Johnson and George Osborne appeal to this faction. By positioning themselves just right of the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the Mayor of London shore up support among Conservatives, making it more likely that they will one day lead the party. When that day comes, they will no doubt push towards the centre-ground. But by then it may be be too late.
Lord Ashcroft's analysis of why the Tories didn't win in 2010 argues that the detoxification of the Tory party was incomplete at the time of the last election. With a necessary but painful programme of cuts which followed, that detoxification has taken a step backwards.
Indeed it is only David Cameron who keeps the project of detoxification alive.
Many of the electorate still link Cameron with hugging hoodies and huskies. This is a good thing; it is why he often polls higher than his party. The link remains because from the beginning of his time as leader, David Cameron worked to broaden the appeal of the Conservatives. He realised before anyone else that the party would have to change in order to win.
But by making a play for the right-wingers, both George Osborne and Boris Johnson are distancing themselves from the task of change. And though this may charm the party, it will not win over the country.
Over the next year the two heavyweights will attract even more attention. Boris Johnson's record will come under fire as he campaigns for re-election. Equally, with George Osborne's cuts beginning to bite, the pressure for some good news on the economy can only grow. And this attention will feed the talk of rivalry between them.
But as long as Tories play Top Trumps with the Chancellor and London Mayor, they ignore the fact that the Conservatives are not on course for a majority. They are not even on course for a victory. Conservatives must show that they are still working to broaden the appeal of their party. Boris Johnson and George Osborne must prove that they can not only match, but exceed Cameron's commitment to change.
Guy Stagg is a freelance journalist, based in London. He tweets at @guystagg
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If 'modernisation' means swallowing whole Labour's defunct multikulturalist heritage, and excising all real Tory priorities such as shrinking the size of the state, deregulating the markets giving individuals and companies greater freedoms, lowering taxes, strengthening of our national defence, and upholding British justice and the rule of law againast European judical imperialism - then what on earth is the point of the Conservative Party?
Iff Cameron went back to Conservative policies then they might just gain support from those who now vote Ukip but I very much doubt they the Conservative Party actually register that. People I have talked to lately that are fed up with the Westminster elite that just seeing the voters as just cannon and totally ignoring their wishes is growing.Those voters are looking more and more towards UKIP either as a protest vote or because they feel that their views are ignored the.All major parties are so enmeshed in Westminster and totally enthralled by the EU and seeing Government as being a social service that they have actually lost sight that the Government should be putting the Country first.
I consider myself to be right wing but agree with Cameron's approach. Detoxification is key - I know right wingers like the idea that 'if we'd just been a bit more right wing, we'd have a majority' but I think they are seriously underestimating what a good job Labour did in totally demonising the Conservative party. It has been ingrained in peoples subconscious (and not just tribal labour party supporters) that they are the evil party that look out for big business and crush the working class into the ground.
What makes things difficult to call for the 2015 election is the new boundaries and constituencies. Added to this we have to think of what will happen to the Lib Dem vote, and how much it will collapse.
While Cameron should have won an outright majority, and would have had he not been too obviously a centrist softie, it must be remembered that the Conservatives polled as many votes as Blair in 2005, and only the corrupt boundaries and voting demographics prevented the comfortable majority that Blair enjoyed.
I'd agree with James Clover that the electOral system is unfair. But we had the chance to change it, and blew it. So .. Soapy centre for ever after then. With the current system elections have to be fought from the middle.
If the electorate will only vote for a party that is left wing despite the abject failure of all socialist big government policies then we really are doomed and will the last person to leave please turn out the lights. Heir to Blair Cameron has already failed to carry through any conservative policies so if even he is too right wing for Britain I'm off to a more right wing country- like China or North Vietnam.
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The reason the Tories did not win a majority in 2010 was Cameron. If he had carried out his promise of an EU referendum the votes would not have been lost to UKIP and a majority would have been maintained. The world is tacking right - the socialist way of welfare and debt is going to lead us into hell. You think the UK will buck that trend? I don't think so. Cameron has angered many, many grass root Tories, and die hard Labour will not support him. He is a failure. The country needs right-wing politics and policies, and both men have seen what this journalist seems blind too.