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Never mind Libya. Is Europe’s “last dictatorship” finally wobbling?
Alexander Lukashenka, the dictator of Belarus, looks to be in deep trouble. Is the Arab Spring about to come to Europe?
When a man like Alexander Lukashenka, the brutal dictator of Belarus, starts calling for “negotiations” with political players from all across the spectrum, as he shocked observers of the country by doing yesterday, there are really only two conclusions to be drawn.
One, he’s lost his marbles – the most popular members of the democratic opposition languish in his jails or remain under permanent surveillance by what in Belarus is still tellingly called the KGB. Who does Lukashenka actually envisage talking to?
Or two, the situation in his country is now so desperate that, with half a glance at the fate of his friend Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, he and his inner circle have concluded there’s no choice but to reach some sort of accommodation with the opposition (read the majority of the Belarusian people), or face catastrophe.
As far as his state of mind is concerned, there have always been some serious questions. But that applies to most dictators and whatever one says about Lukashenka he is not paranoid in thinking that the large majority of his population want him out.
Living standards are plummeting as prices soar. The unions are on the move and planning nationwide protests in October. Despite long-standing attempts to suppress it, the murders his regime has perpetrated against political opponents are now common knowledge.
The December 2010 elections were worse than a joke as everybody inside and outside Belarus knows. Lukashenka gave himself 80 percent of the vote.
The situation in the country is so farcical that it is widely rumoured in Minsk that one of the state prosecutors at the trial of Andrei Sannikov – the man most likely to be president in genuinely free elections – admitted that he himself had voted for Sannikov at the polls, after which Sannikov was promptly jailed for five years on charges trumped up by that self-same prosecutor.
Internationally, Lukashenka is almost completely isolated. The Russians regard him as a liability, and he and Vladimir Putin are known to despise each other. (Though it remains true that Russia would rather have Lukashenka in power than a democrat who would take Belarus into NATO.)
The European Union and the United States are tightening sanctions and won’t even allow him to visit their territory.
Still, he does have a couple of friends: the afore mentioned Colonel Gaddafi; Hugo Chavez (dying, it appears, of cancer) and none other than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who reassuringly told Lukashenka in a phone call in June that “Iran will always stand by Belarus.”
It’s a bleak picture and the regime is clearly nervous. Hence its call for talks.
The leading opposition groupings which circulate around the hugely popular Charter 97 website (English version here), is rightly resolute in saying that there is nothing to talk about until all the political prisoners have been released, charges dropped and KGB surveillance ended.
As for the West, it is vital to keep up the pressure. The political prisoners must, of course, be freed unconditionally. If they are not the EU and the United States should be readying themselves for a massive expansion of sanctions, possibly also to third parties that continue to do business with Belarus along the lines of America’s Helms Burton Act of 1996 over Cuba.
Lukashenka has shown himself to be a survivor. So no-one should be expecting miracles. But Europe’s last dictatorship is in real trouble. Maybe it’s time the continent didn’t have any dictatorships at all.
Robin Shepherd is the owner/publisher of @CommentatorIntl
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Last dictator? What about the other elected dictatorships in Europe, such as Putin/Medvedev in Russia. Or Yanukovych in Ukraine - putting the former PM and rival on trial is not a sign of a democrat.
Last dictatorship? What about Georgia? what makes it any more democratic than Belarus? Has it deported any president with an election after USSR collapsed? And what makes UK and France who bomb civilians in Libya today, any less dictating. Of course if you consider "Majority rule" as democracy, then you are right. which also includes Nazi Germany as a modern democracy.
Cradle of Democracy??? With the (slightly crazy) King George on the throne, the USA became the cradle of modern Democracy in 1776!
I'm afraid the article is a bit too optimistic. What we see now happening is the end-game orchestrated by the Kremlin: Putin has recently mentioned that a merger between Russia and Belarus would be 'possible' and 'desirable', and at the same time Russian state companies are buying all strategic Belarus stock they can get their hands on. Russia is just letting Belarus bleed financially until the country is on it's knees (and stock prices are really low), and they can take over easily. It's true, Medvedev and Lukashenko are not on friendly terms, but for the Kremlin it will be easy to appoint a new 'governor' in Minsk. The Kremlin will avoid at all cost that a pro-Western, democratic gouvernement will take power in Minsk.
Lukashenko wants money. Always wanted. Always will want. He will never allow freedom in Belarus because he hates it and afraid of. He is a homo soveticus in and out. He has already played this card many times and EU politicians buy this because like Putin's Russia they don't want hear anything from Belarus - just silence.
Lukashenko tortures and kills people. It was just yesterday, that another leader of an online community confessed on YouTube how he was suffocated with a plastic bag and badly beaten in a KGB prison to make him sign a cooperation accord (which he did and now posted a video to announce that he breaks it). watch?v=ckW-ceNr4Ow . Europe! Pleaaaaaase! No money to Lukashenko!!! Pleaaaase, no loans! No trade with Belarus! Every cent you give to him kills more people here. We can survive economic hardships if this puts an end to this hell.
Lukashenko tortures and kills people. It was just yesterday, that another leader of an online community confessed on YouTube how he was suffocated with a plastic bag and badly beaten in a KGB prison to make him sign a cooperation accord (which he did and now posted a video to announce that he breaks it). watch?v=ckW-ceNr4Ow . Europe! Pleaaaaaase! No money to Lukashenko!!! Pleaaaase, no loans! No trade with Belarus! Every cent you give to him kills more people here. We can survive economic hardships if this puts an end to this hell.
Mr. Shepherd! Thank you for this fantastic article. The first head of independent Belarus, Stanislau Shushkevich, supported a proposal of Belarusian presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov regarding Lukashenka’s recent initiative. He said: Europe has already called Andrei Sannikov our Belarusian Vaclav Havel, because being imprisoned, he proposes a course that would allow an evolutional handover of power in Belarus. Yes, we should start talks with Lukashenka after the release of all political prisoners. But we have just one theme – the order of handover of power
Our lider Andrei Sannikov and all political prisoners must be free right now!!! Lukashenka has one way only - to Hague!
ndrei Sannikov said: "I accept talks with Lukashenko. But only on one issue - about the transfer of power. Apart from the terms of his surrender, there is nothing to discuss with him. All this is still going to happen before the end of the year, but for the moment Lukashenko has a choice how exactly to go. If he does not use this opportunity, he will have no choice later"
Great article. Not many people in Belarus can see the situation so clear as Mr. Shepherd!
How can we get this issue more mainstream in the news? One never hears anything about this in the UK press. Thank you Mr Shephard.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, has reiterated that Alyaksandr Lukashenka should release and rehabilitate all political prisoners, reported Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)
Western democracy assistance over the last two decades has worked best when linked to the EU membership perspective and the willingness of candidate countries to accept deep reform conditions attached to it. Since the Belarus of Lukashenko is not interested in EU membership, the EU’s repertoire of assistance is significantly limited. However, recent brutal disruptions of peaceful protests, the torture of political prisoners (including presidential candidates), the abolition and harassment of civil society and independent media have helped convince the 27 EU members of the need to tackle more intensively long-term violations of human rights on its doorstep
During the last two decades Lukashenka proved himself as a very sly and naughty politician. He showed a surprising persistence capability for a slightly-educated hick. Apparently he honestly considers himself as a god-blessed, sliest guy in the world. He believes he can trick everybody as easy as Belarusian majority, who trust every word he says. The more unbelievable his lie, the more they trust. He, seems, counts on his account the all money contributed by Russia during these decades. His customary strategy is playing bad-good fellow. He never applied anything else, but wheedling and promising, showing some activity as if he changes, getting what he needs and then rolling-back to accusing with some nonsenses. Now he is trying to sell some political-prisoners for the credit and sees himself genius. Why that's like selling air, he can make any number of new prisoners any time and sell them again.
It is inconceivable that Europe was in talks with Lukashenko and gave him the money
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Fantastic. You have no idea how important it is for us to know that we have such good friends in Great Britain. We admire your country as "cradle of democracy".............. If you believe in freedom as this writer does believe, please join us and support our fight for freedom. All dictators go in the end, so will murderer Lukashenko. The people of Belarus thanking you very much. Free political prisoners now! Thanks to you again.