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The Euro shatters the old politics

It is fascinating and frightening to watch the drama being played out between Greece and the rest of the eurozone. But it's not just economic and social policy. The euro is collapsing the party political system as we have known it

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Alexis Tsipras. Will he bend?
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John Redwood MP
On 20 February 2015 08:55

The gripping drama being played out between Syriza and the rest of the Euro area is not just a struggle between creditors and debtors, or between countries who will play by the rules and one who thinks the rules are absurd. It is also an enthralling battle over the future of democratic parties in a variety of Euro area countries.

Syrzia swept to power by crushing the centre left traditional Greek party and by defeating the centre right alternative. Both those parties were sullied by submission to EU austerity policies which had led to a decline of one quarter in Greek living standards and mass unemployment.

In Spain, the issue is how well will Podemos do with its anti establishment stance. In Italy, can a combination of the Grillo 5 star movement and the Lega Nord put the traditional centre right and centre left to the sword? In France, both the Gaulist opposition and the governing Socialists are behind Le Pen’s National Front in Presidential polls.

The interesting feature is how comprehensive the collapse of a traditional party can be under the extreme impact of Euro policies which national governments are unable to overturn or even influence much.

The Socialist party of Greece, not so long ago the governing party, collapsed to 5 percent of the vote in January this year. In Italy, Forza Italia, the old centre right governing party of Berlusconi, is today on just 12 percent in the polls. In France, the socialist party of Mr Hollande is on just 23 percent.

The future of Syriza matters to both the traditional parties and the new challengers. If Syriza caves in and accepts new loans with a string of austerity conditions, traditional parties will breathe a sigh of relief. They will think that extinguishes the reason to vote for change in such an inflexible system.

It may, of course, just make Greek voters even angrier, looking for a new challenger party to support. It may also anger challenger parties and voters elsewhere, increasing their resolve to stand firm if their chance comes. If, on the contrary, Syriza hangs tough and gets major concessions, then the challengers elsewhere will expect to do well to enjoy the same treatment.

They may of course encounter new barriers and new language against them, as the rest of the EU will be reluctant to allow others to get away with such a challenge. Greece will be portrayed as a very special case, and ring fenced.

In the UK, without the austerity of the Euro and with a better performing economy, the two main parties' support is holding up better than on the continent. In 2005, Labour and Conservative commanded just 67.6 percent of the vote in the General election. Today, they have around 65 percent in the polls.

In the UK, the dramatic decline has taken place in the third party support of the Lib Dems. They had 22 percent in 2005, and 23 percent in 2010. They are now down around 6 percent. The top three parties of 2005 had 89.6 percent of the vote. In 2010 they had 90.7 percent.

Today, those same three have 71 percent. Most of that fall is down to the third party, the Lib Dems. Protest is moving to others now the Lib Dems have been a party in government. Their enthusiasm for all things European clearly does nothing to help their popularity.

Mr. Redwood's writing is re-posted here by his kind permission. This and other articles are available at  johnredwoodsdiary.com

Read more on: break up of the European Union, european union budget, and european question
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