In 30 seconds: Why Brexit is going to win on June 23

UPDATED: Latest polls show majority for Brexit. See these five reasons, in a 30 second read, as to why Britain will vote to leave the European Union in the June 23 referendum

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Two losers, high fiving...
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the commentator
On 16 May 2016 14:29

With 3 weeks and 1 day to go to the June 23 referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, Brexit now looks likely to win. Here's why:

1) In order to secure victory, Remain should be 8-10 points clear by now in the polls. This is because turnout will be much higher on the Brexit side. Yet, polls of polls show a dead heat, with a slight lead recently for Brexit. See analysis here, also on why online polls (favouring Brexit) are likely to be more reliable.

Update: In the last week of May, 3 of 4 opinion polls have shown a lead for Brexit.

2) Remain has fired off all of its big guns. But there has been no movement in the polls. They don't have any options left. See here for why.

3) David Cameron is a technocrat. He does not have the mental capacity, or the charisma, to engage an issue as substantive as Britain's membership of the EU. This is why he is so easy to ridicule. See here.

4) The zeitgeist (spirit of the times) is against the establishment. The 2007/8 Great Recession was presided over, and caused by, all the establishment institutions -- Bank of England, IMF, OECD, CBI, European Commission -- now being rolled out to predict catastrophe in the event of Brexit. Rightly, they lack credibility.

5) Britain has been on the right side of history regarding Europe since the French Revolution in 1789. There is a deeply ingrained sense in British culture that, when it comes to Europe, we are right to be close, but also right to be sufficiently distant so as not to be sucked into all the nonsense.

This is why Britain will likely vote to leave the European Union in the June 23 referendum.

NB: This article was last updated on June 1, 2016

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