Latest online opinion poll gives Brexit the lead; less reliable phone survey favours Remain

The latest online opinion poll gives Brexit a 52-48 percent lead ahead of the June 23 referendum. A less reliable telephone survey, meanwhile, gives the lead to Remain

by the commentator on 17 May 2016 07:58

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The latest online opinion poll for the Guardian/ICM gives Brexit a 52-48 percent lead ahead of the June 23 referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union.

Meanwhile, a simultaneous telephone poll by Guardian/ICM gave the Remain campaign a 55-45 percent lead.

Internet polls are thought to be more reliable than phone polls, and they recently predicted the results of the London mayoral elections with much greater accuracy.

One reason for this is that with all major establishment organisations backing Remain, some Brexiteers inevitably feel intimidated against telling the truth to pollsters.

Even the online polling may underestimate the strength of the Brexit camp, but it is widely acknowledged that the person to person nature of telephone polling poses greater dangers of overestimating the position of Remain.

Online polls also tend to use a much bigger sample. In this case, the sample in the online survey was double the size of the phone survey: 2,048-1,002. The polling was conducted on May 13-15. 

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