Why latest poll putting Remain just ahead is good news for Brexit

Remain would be very unwise to take comfort from the very latest phone poll giving them a 1 point lead. They need much more than that to win. Brexiteers should be cautiously optimistic right now. Here's why...

by Eurosceptic on 21 June 2016 17:39

The very latest opinion poll, published by the Independent, has Remain on 45 percent and Brexit on 44 percent.

This should be seen as good news for Brexiteers since the Survation poll was conducted by telephone. Phone polls have tended to favour Remain because they are less anonymous than online polls -- which have been much more positive about the prospects for Brexit.

The anonymity issue is always significant when the establishment is almost uniformly in favour of something because some people (perhaps up to 10 percent) are very reluctant to voice opposition to "polite" opinion.

With practically all established organisations -- from the CBI to the Bank of England -- backing Remain, this factor is highly likely to be at play ahead of the June 23 referendum.

In other words, a 1 percentage point lead (2 if you take out the undecided) is nowhere near enough for Remain to be confident that the result of the referendum (conducted by a secret ballot) will be true to the opinion polls.

Remain should probably be leading in all opinion polls by 5-10 percentage points by now if they are going to win.

The fact that they are not, and that the average of all recent surveys shows a dead heat, should give us Brexiteers cause for cautious optimism.

We shall see, very soon now...

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