The Jihad has been wrong-footed by MidEast uprisings, but they're ready to bounce back

Political discourse in the Arab world has been shifting somewhat in the last few years. The rise of news channels such as al-Arabiya, al-Hurrah, and BBC Arabic have impacted the political discourse in a positive way since they have given a significant amount of airtime to non-Islamist voices.

So with these voices dominating the debate, jihadists have been finding it increasingly difficult to influence the discourse. This has resulted in jihadist online forums becoming increasingly active and assertive, with mixed results. 

Such forums initially responded with deafening silence to the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Jordan. Al-Qaeda took four to five weeks before issuing an official statement, which came across as outdated by the time it was aired.

Subsequently, jihadist online activists began to support the uprisings and claimed that their jihadist struggle had laid the groundwork for them, and that the actions of their fighters had given young Arabs the courage to stand up to dictatorship.

Their support then shifted to anger and denial when the largely secular nature of the uprisings became apparent. At this stage they began to rubbish the uprisings, claiming that revolutions that merely remove dictators without overhauling the system and replacing it with an Islamist one are useless.

This shift also displayed a hint of insecurity, and their rhetoric became a lot more theological. The fact they recognised that these uprisings could diminish support for their cause was apparent and they sought to consolidate their existing support base.

A range of al-Qaeda leaders, such as Ayman al-Zawahiri, Sheikh Atiyyatullah and Ibrahim al-Rubaish, issued statements that essentially made the same points. Namely that only shar’iah can bring real and meaningful change, and western interference in Arab domestic affairs must be resisted at all costs.

Zawahiri did focus his words on Egypt in particular, reflecting his own origins and the fact that Egypt is viewed as the most influential country in the region.

However, the jihadists remained at the sidelines of the debate and were largely spectators. True, events did take a turn in their favour when the uprising in Libya turned violent.

Jihadists have always been obsessed with violence and bloodshed as a means to bring about political change. The largely peaceful nature of the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings, therefore, discredited their methodology.  So when Libya began to descend into civil war, they spotted an opportunity.

The infamous Abu Yahya al-Libi and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghrib (AQIM) both issued statements that directly addressed the Libyan situation. Al-Libi’s statements attacked Arab liberals and democrats for being agents of western imperialism, encouraged Libyans to store weapons and discouraged Libyans from making a distinction between the jihadists and the ordinary people. AQIM’s statements offered military support to the rebels, encouraged Libyan jihadists from around the world to return to Libya and sought to rebrand the uprising against Ghadaffi’s regime as ‘Jihad’.

It is clear from the above that jihadists believe they can exploit the Libyan situation and use it to create another power base in a very strategic location. There are reasons for them to be optimistic too.

Historically, Libya has contributed a significant number of suicide bombers to Iraq and fighters to Afghanistan. Many senior members of al-Qaeda are Libyan and Libya is a highly militarised society.

After being wrong footed by Tunisia and Egypt, jihadists are now presenting the Libyan crisis as the latest chapter in their struggle against western imperialism and secular Muslim autocrats.

It is also conceivable that jihadists would seek to exploit a deteriorating Yemeni situation in a similar way. They already have a presence in the region and a support base amongst the population.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has already issued its own statements toeing the standard jihadist line and attacking the Saudi Ulema (religious scholars).

Interestingly, they haven’t focused their attention on the situation in Bahrain. It is more than likely that they would interpret the situation in Bahrain as other Sunni Arabs in the region do, i.e. as an Iranian inspired Shi’a uprising that should be crushed.  

So whilst the Arab uprisings have presented Jihadists with a few opportunities to bolster their narrative, in the medium term at least I think they will damage the jihadist cause.

Egyptian protestors achieved in a few weeks what jihadists couldn’t in over 30 years, and peaceful street protests as a means of bringing about change now have credibility.

However, dangers do exist and jihadist rhetoric reflects the fact that these uprisings are in some cases beginning to present them with opportunities to recruit.

Furthermore, let’s not forget that these are Arab uprisings and not Muslim uprisings. This is a significant point because regardless of what happens in the next few months in the Middle East and North Africa region, jihadist recruitment in South Asia and South East Asia will continue unabated.

Ghaffar Hussain is head of the outreach and training unit at Britain's first counter extremism think-tank, the Quilliam Foundation