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2015: The year of Farage Fever?
If UKIP's rise continues apace, Cleggmania could be made to look like a non-event compared to Farage Fever, 2015
While most of the media focuses on the headline Coalition/Labour battleground, something quite extraordinary is happening. UKIP is gaining momentum and is more popular than ever before outside of the European Election cycle.
Now, a cynic may simply argue that since I am a UKIP supporter, I would say this. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating: YouGov's daily polls since the General Election last year have shown a consistent trend among "others".
The BNP are down to around one percent; the Greens are fixed on around three percent. UKIP meanwhile has gone from polling between four and five percent to regularly hitting seven percent and now eight percent. This is not a "plague on all your houses" surge as many predicted after the expenses scandal. This is a UKIP surge and a UKIP surge alone.
According to the latest YouGov poll, some 11 percent of 2010 Tory voters now intend to switch to UKIP. And that's only since last year. A smattering of highly credible 2010 Tory candidates such as Janice Atkinson-Small and Andrew Charalambous have switched sides as has Lord Hesketh, former Tory Treasurer and perhaps the biggest defection to UKIP in the young Party's history.
But we shouldn't view this growth as purely reliant on disgruntled Conservatives. Six percent of 2010 LibDem voters in this latest poll are now switching to UKIP.
Shock horror - the BBC's image of the Party as a single issue, Thatcherite grouping is hopelessly simplistic.
A majority of all voters in polls have been shown to be concerned about the EU, immigration levels, human rights legislation, a failing education system, a soft stance on law and order and the treatment of those serving in our Armed Forces. These are all topics that UKIP weighs in on in local and regional campaigns, slowly building up a steady base of natural UKIP voters that are not reliant on the performance of any particular party in or out of government.
That is the true secret to UKIP's resilience and why unlike the Greens and the BNP it is capable of sustaining and maintaining nationwide support. While Nick Griffin and Caroline Lucas may see their parties enjoying small pockets of support in areas like Barking and Brighton, UKIP is beginning to pick up Councillors across the country.
In fact, UKIP picked up, in 2009, MEPs in nearly every region of the UK including the likes of Wales, the South West of England and the North West. It is also the reason that, come the next General Election, it will have in place Prospective Parliamentary Candidates for virtually every constituency.
Judging from the television coverage, would you really know that the Lib Dems, who enjoyed comprehensive conference coverage and daily media representation, are now polling just one percent ahead of the little (but increasingly) mentioned UKIP?
With the Euro destroying itself from within, as UKIP predicted, and George Osbourne making the case for the EU to press ahead for fiscal union, the momentum that is behind Nigel Farage's Party could soon reach a critical point.
Winning seats in the London Assembly next year could lead on to 2014 where the Party may stand a chance of coming first, nationally, in the European Elections. With the General Election just a year after that, who is to say that a raft of UKIP MPs couldn’t secure that important Westminster breakthrough?
Sounds unrealistic? Then ponder this: come 2015, would it really be credible to argue that Nigel Farage shouldn't be in the Prime Ministerial debates if UKIP has won a national election the year before and is outpolling the Lib Dems consistently in General Election opinion polls?
Cleggmania could be made to look like a non-event compared to Farage Fever 2015.
Michael Heaver is a UKIP activist and blogger. He tweets at @Michael_Heaver
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As a Conservative who still plans to vote that way at the next election I have a soft spot for UKIP
The BNP always seem to beat UKIP in local and general election wards when they go head to head. Although UKIP does do better in the EU elections!
I believe they will make a breakthrough come the next election, for this Tory/Lib coalition as lost all crediblity. Cameron as made promises and then not kept them, we were promised a referendum and then he got round it blaming that it has already been ratified. He would have had more muscle if he's got the British people behind him, he's a fool for not trusting the people more. Nigel Farage speaks and says what he thinks and knows, that's why he's getting my vote, and the prospect of freedom from the EU.
Clegg-maina was always horribly overblown and the election result proved that. There are lots of steps UKIP need to start pushing for, such as being included in discussions with the civil service over policy prior to an election. I'm not actually saying they'll win, but the Lib Dems get the privilege and so should UKIP.
The party needs to diversify, an over reliance on Farage won't help them into the long term when they face wider scrutiny. An alliance with Conservatives wouldn't hurt either, the party grassroots and most MP's are on UKIP's side, the leadership must eventually follow.
Best of luck to them!
www.tory-inquisitor.blogspot.com
I think that your broad point is that there may be a tipping point before 2015 that forces UKIP into the limelight.
The Liberals/LibDems have been 'the 3rd party' for most of a century now, so it will be hard, but correspondingly the benefits would be great for you.
For a start, what happens if you overtake the LDs consistently in polling? If the polling companies start to include UKIP as well as, or as opposed to, the LibDems in prompted questions, they may shoot up in popularity as they may be deemed 'mainstream'.
We'll see. But, on the other hand, if the EU rips itself to pieces in the next 4 years (it's hardly survived the last 2 well), will your job, in a sense already be done for you?
The trouble UKIP face is having a single face, Nigel Farage. Now, I like the guy very much and find him compelling but I don't pretend that everyone does, I know many who positively don't and I wonder how that affects the party's growth.
Obviously he is the right hand for leading the party but we need a wider number of people who are as articulate and on script as Nigel. It looks like a small party when you can only ever think of one person in it. This has to change.
I readily acknowledge the poetry amount of attention they are given by the MSM but despite this, it is better that more faces be pushed forward. Undecideds need to be brought into the fold; Lord Tebbit would make a fantastic asset. His blog on the Telegraph is one of the most popular and the comments are both illuminating and hopeful. Why doesn't Nigel Farage have a regular column/blog somewhere like Daniel Hannan and Tebbit? This needs correcting.
I was a Conservative voter from the moment i turned 18 and was a member of the party for longer than that. I had reservations about Cameron's tories, what with Kenny Clarke getting back in with a bunch of other Tory wets from days past but i decided anything has to be better than Brown and my first priority was to get Labour out. Oh how wrong was I! With the Lib Dems in place, this Government is more pro EU than before and i gave up on the day of the Referendum vote. I sent my Tory party membership card back and exchanged it for a UKIP one as i should have done in the first place not just because of their policies but because i always admired Nigel so much more than Dave.
Nigel Farage will take UKIP to become Britain's 3rd party! and i cant wait until we finally get out of the EU, gain full control of our nation. get an English parliament so that the English finally get there own say on there own country!!!! and my god a pause on immigration is needed for a wile, then i fully support the Australian based immigration system.
there is no doubt in my mind that UKIP will take us out of the EU
Isn't it about time that YouGov started asking Conservative, Labour Lib Dem, UKIP or other?
Like others here, I voted tory again to get rid of Brown. Also like others here, I am disappointed to learn that Cameron is a waste of space and no real tory, so next time I will vote for Farage's party, and I suspect, so will many others.
At the moment I shall support David Cameron in the hope that he really does have a plan to recover powers lost to the EU. At the next election though I might vote UKIP, even though it could be a wasted vote - and contribute to them and leaflet drop for them too.
Farage seems a bit of a one-trick Pony to me. He tells people what they want to hear about Europe but I doubt his lot could actually run a country. But nor can any of the others, I suppose...
A coalition with the Conservatives would be good. They would have more in common than the Conservatives with the Lib Dems.
I hope all the UKIPers did the right thing and backed AV in the referendum. With our current system a UKIP vote is a wasted vote.
All those people who think UKIP will rise to power or even get double figure MPs in UK are just in cloud cuckoo land.
The forces arranged against them are well practiced to fight off silly little political parties with loud mouth leaders.
The BBC are the foremost organ of EU and UN propaganda, never mind ultra-left mud slinging and Tory establishment clap trap, the voice of the people is the BBC. The NUJ compliant media setup in UK has a firm hold on what is right or wrong and will therefore engage the loss making 'newspapers' in a constant stream of anti-UKIP tittle tattle. Even this article here by Michael Heaver can't write about UKIP without mentioning the 'vile right wing' BNP. Juxtaposition works wonders.
However, should some minor or major Royal, VIP, or a faction of 'independent Lords' engage in the debate and voice a positive view of UKIP things just might pan out rather differently, but I'm not holding my breathe.
The British establishment only prefer trusted parties with money making schemes and pie in the sky wind turbines and muti-cultural this and that. Any party or person who comes in the way will be exterminated asap. History is littered with such parties who find themselves in the dustbin of history for no fault of their own: can you believe that UKIP are not heading that way? Stay as a pressure group with one sound issue. Out of the EU, that's enough to start with.
The Tory party are the only true party of power and truth, don't ya know? They are born to rule, we must all bow before their greatness.
The Labour party's history in the last twenty years could be said to include the dung heap that Britain is today.
I quit voting Tory the day Major signed the Maastricht Treaty. Cameron's lies won't bring me back into the Tory fold. I began to support UKIP that day Kilroy threw his dummy out of the pram and stormed off to form his failed narcissist party. Needless to say, I don't have a problem with Farage.
@Kelly (#3) I can only recall one occasion in the last 2 or 3 years where a BNP candidate has beaten a UKIP candidate. UKIP are in a different league to the BNP entirely.
Sadly the only way to stop the BBC pigeon-holing UKIP as a single issue party is to turn down appearances until they start coming to UKIP for comments on non-EU stuff. It's a gamble but UKIP will struggle to make serious inroads into the LibLabCon when the electorate thinks it only has one policy because of the way the party is treated by the media.
I left the Conservative Party recently having been a paid-up member for about ten years. I did so over the three-line whip Cameron enforced on Tory MPs to vote against a referendum on membership of the EU (a debate occasioned by a petition on the HM Government website - one of David Cameron's initiatives!).
I have not joined UKIP but would certainly consider doing so based on Farage's media performances. Negatives for me are the multiple quarrels and bust-ups between UKIP's top brass in recent years and the lack of any spokespeople of note besides Farage. If the 80 Tory MPs who rebelled and the likes of Dan Hannan defected I would sign up right away.
Sadly, even in the unlikely event this did happen, the party would need years to digest the new intake and this will only be possible if there are no further bust-ups at the top. I can understand the reticence among Tory MPs. The risk to the political right in Britain is great and I only entertain the notion because I am so disgruntled David Cameron.
UKIP merely represents true 'old fashioned' Tory values, values which have hitherto been made illegal by 15+ years of lefty Marxist rule. How dare we get concerned about the endless level of migration, pushing our population toward the 80million mark! How dare we vent our spleen at pathetic sentences handed down to criminals by an out-of-touch judiciary more interested in giving criminals excuses! How dare we shake our fist at the culture of joblessness Labour cultivated for so long! How dare we want more control over how our country is run, out of the hands of Europe!
Why do you think so many of UKIP's newest voters have migrated from the Conservatives? Duh, because they see in UKIP what they USED to see in the 'Nasty Party'!
True Conservatives and UKIP members are identical. They both know what the country needs and wants. The Conservative party is now staffed and led by people who are so out of touch that unless they ditch Cameron and his schoolboy cronies they are finished. Those of them that have more than half a brain need to defect to UKIP until such time as we are out of Europe and the country is back on its feet, perhaps we could then be led by a UK Conservative party that represents Britain only and stops interefering in world politics. You never know we might even be able to use the term 'Great Britain' once again !
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In a FPTP election, the Greens and BNP's ability to do better in some areas is superior to UKIP's ability to win 8% nationwide. For example, the Lib Dems won almost 3x as many seats in 2005 as the Alliance in 1983 but with 3pp fewer votes by building up strongholds.