UK employment data confounds Project Fear projections yet again

The record high employment figures represent another in a series of blows to the credibility of anti-Brexit establishment "analysts" in outlets and institutions such as the Financial Times, the Bank of England and the Treasury, who issued warnings of economic slump and mass joblessness should Britain opt to leave the European Union

by the commentator on 29 January 2019 14:09

Figure_1__summary_of_uk_labour_market_statistics_for_september_to_november_2018__seasonally_adjusted

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released the following labour market data showing UK employment at the highest level since comparable records began in 1971.

The data is another in a series of blows to the credibility of anti-Brexit establishment "analysts" in outlets and institutions such as the Financial Times, the Bank of England and the Treasury, who issued warnings of economic slump and mass joblessness should Britain opt to leave the European Union.

It is important to note that the anti-Brexit camp warned of dire economic consequences merely as a consequence of Britain voting to leave the EU. Their predictions of doom were not only about the afternath of leaving the EU, but also the aftermath of the referendum itself.

None of their predictions have come true.

The following is from the website of the ONS: 

Main points for September to November 2018

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between June to August 2018 and September to November 2018, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people was little changed and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking nor available to work (economically inactive) decreased.

There were an estimated 32.53 million people in work, 141,000 more than for June to August 2018 and 328,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was estimated at 75.8%, higher than for a year earlier (75.3%) and the highest since comparable estimates began in 1971.

There were an estimated 1.37 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), little changed compared with June to August 2018 but 68,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was estimated at 4.0%, it has not been lower since December 1974 to February 1975.

There were an estimated 8.65 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking nor available to work), 100,000 fewer than for June to August 2018 and 86,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was estimated at 21.0%, lower than for a year earlier (21.2%) and the joint-lowest estimate since comparable estimates began in 1971.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.3% excluding bonuses, and by 3.4% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.1% excluding bonuses, and by 1.2% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

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