EU has more to fear than UK from No Deal

The fantasists in Brussels will not personally pay a price for the negative fall out from No Deal. But German, French, and other citiziens and businesses certainly would. It is time the EU woke up to the fact that No Deal would hurt them more than us

Ursula von der Leyen could crash in a No Deal
Joshua Mackenzie-Lawrie
On 15 August 2019 14:05

When it comes to Project Fear it has long seemed Remainers and Europhiles from across the Continent seem to be blind to the EU’s own backyard. Should the EU refuse to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, and in effect force No Deal into reality, have they truly considered the cost to their own economies and the European Project as a whole?

Is it really sensible for the EU’s unelected bureaucrats to continue refusing any attempts to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement, thus forcing Member States into economic uncertainty?

In the last year, the EU has claimed that its economies and its politics will continue to thrive in spite of Brexit, but the reality is very different. Within France up to 60% of people have been polled as Eurosceptic, coupled with an economy and businesses which are deeply dependant on UK markets.

The German economy is at present on the verge of recession, and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, will be replaced next year by an as yet undecided individual. Coupled with Germany’s car industry going through a radical reform process owing to plummeting sales, the entire mentality of many companies has had to change as a result of volatility in markets, and environmental issues.

The UK is Germany's biggest export market, and Germany is not a country which could happily endure, as a result of No Deal, the UK suddenly imposing higher tariffs on their goods.

If this happens, can the EU be sure they won’t force their most important domestic economy into severe economic dislocation of the kind that could have a domino effect around the Eurozone? Brussels Bureaucrats may find this damaging to their federalist ambitions. Despite this obvious risk the newly appointed European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, a German herself, is blindly committed to further federalism.

Aside from German weakness, the French have been loving throwing stones at the British, stating No Deal will be our‘downfall’, and claiming they are ready for No Deal. However, their economy would suggest otherwise. At present, without a Withdrawal Agreement, the French will face a substantial upheaval in many industries, but mainly within their agricultural and fishing sectors.

Should No Deal be implemented as a result of EU intransigence and arrogance, then French fishing vessels will no longer legally have access to British waters and our fish, putting thousands of French livelihoods at risk. This, coupled with the substantial UK tarrifs would not sit well with a French economy which has become accustomed to being protected from such a scenario by the Common Agricultural Policy.

What’s more, once we are outside the EU and hopefully, without the restrictions of the current Withdrawal Agreement, the UK will be free to engage with new markets throughout the world which offer high quality goods for fractions of the price we are paying for now. This would leave the French agricultural sector deprived of their current monopoly on goods such as cereals and dairy.

This barely begins to scratch the surface of possible consequences for the EU in the event of No Deal, While the UK may take some initial economic hits should we walk away from negotiations, there are a plethora of potential benefits for the UK, based on the freedom which No Deal would provide. However, for the EU No Deal would present a very negative outlook, with any consequences severely concentrated on the two major powers of the EU -- Germany and France.

It won’t be the bureaucrats in Brussels living in style who bear the brunt, but instead the hardworking people of each Member State. Why should the normal public be forced to suffer so federalist bureaucrats can attempt to protect their precious image of a Europe controlled from Brussels?

If the EU continues to refuse negotiations which would Get Britain Out of the EU on amicable and sensible terms, then they may have some serious internal problems, both economic and political, to deal with in the near future.

Joshua Mackenzie-Lawrie is a Research Executive at the cross-party grassroots campaign Get Britain Out

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